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RORateOdds
  • Fed
  • BoC
  • How it works

Market-implied estimates from delayed end-of-day futures data, for education only — not investment advice. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

How it worksData status

Federal Reserve

Target range 3.75–4.00% · Futures as of 09 Oct 2026

Next decision · Wed 28 Oct 2026

82%

chance of a hold

  • Hold · 3.75–4.00%82%
  • Hike 25 bp · 4.00–4.25%18%

These odds use futures data from 09 Oct 2026. Newer data hasn’t arrived yet, so they may be out of date.

Upcoming meetings

Odds for where the target range will be after each meeting, as a change from today’s 3.75–4.00%.

Market-implied outcomes by Federal Reserve meeting
MeetingChange from todayExpected
28 Oct 2026
  • No change82%
  • +25 bp18%
Most likely: 0 bp		3.92%+5 bp
09 Dec 2026
  • No change20%
  • +25 bp66%

3 meetings from 15 Sep 2027 aren’t priced: the futures for those dates trade too thinly or can’t separate one meeting from another.

Expected path

Markets expect the target midpoint to move from 3.875% today to 4.60% by 28 Jul 2027 (+72 bp).

About these numbers

Odds are implied by the settlement prices of CME 30-Day Fed Funds futures (ZQ). Each meeting’s expected rate is split between the two nearest 25 bp moves and combined meeting by meeting, so later meetings show the total change from today. They are market-implied estimates, not forecasts or advice. How it works

Futures prices as of
09 Oct 2026
Assumed EFFR minus target midpoint
+0.5 bps
Contracts used
ZQX6, ZQZ6, ZQG7, ZQH7, ZQK7, ZQM7, ZQQ7
Model
fed-policy-v5

Model notes

  • ZQ settlement ZQX6 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • ZQ settlement ZQZ6 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • Unobserved pre-effective calendar days use the latest/previous expected overnight rate as an explicit assumption.
  • ZQ settlement ZQG7 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • ZQ settlement ZQH7 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • ZQ settlement ZQK7 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • ZQ settlement ZQM7 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • ZQ settlement ZQQ7 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • ZQ ZQU7 open interest 6,732 is below the configured minimum of 10,000; the meeting is not solved from an illiquid contract.
  • +50 bp14%
    • Most likely: +25 bp
    4.11%+23 bp
    27 Jan 2027
    • No change12%
    • +25 bp49%
    • +50 bp34%
    • +75 bp5%
    Most likely: +25 bp    		4.21%+33 bp
    17 Mar 2027
    • +25 bp26%
    • +50 bp43%
    • +75 bp23%
    Most likely: +50 bp    		4.36%+49 bp
    28 Apr 2027
    • +25 bp18%
    • +50 bp36%
    • +75 bp31%
    • +100 bp11%
    Most likely: +50 bp    		4.46%+59 bp
    09 Jun 2027
    • +25 bp12%
    • +50 bp29%
    • +75 bp33%
    • +100 bp19%
    • +125 bp5%
    Most likely: +75 bp    		4.56%+68 bp
    28 Jul 2027
    • +25 bp10%
    • +50 bp26%
    • +75 bp32%
    • +100 bp21%
    • +125 bp7%
    Most likely: +75 bp    		4.60%+72 bp
  • ZQ ZQV7 open interest 5,631 is below the configured minimum of 10,000; the meeting is not solved from an illiquid contract.
  • ZQ ZQZ7 volume 199 is below the configured minimum of 1,000; the meeting is not solved from an illiquid contract.
    • Expected path CSV Next-meeting odds CSV