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  • Fed
  • BoC
  • How it works

Market-implied estimates from delayed end-of-day futures data, for education only — not investment advice. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

How it worksData status

What will central banks do next?

Market-implied odds for the next Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada rate decisions, from interest-rate futures.

Federal Reserve

Target range 3.75–4.00%

All meetings for the Federal Reserve

Next decision · Wed 28 Oct 2026

82%chance of a hold

  • Hold82%
  • Hike 25 bp18%

Priced in by 28 Jul 2027: +72 bp (target midpoint 4.60%)

These odds use futures data from 09 Oct 2026. Newer data hasn’t arrived yet, so they may be out of date.

Bank of Canada

Policy rate 2.25%

All meetings for the Bank of Canada

Next decision · Wed 28 Oct 2026

78%chance of a hold

  • Hold78%
  • Hike 25 bp22%

Priced in by 27 Oct 2027: +97 bp (policy rate 3.22%)

These odds use futures data from 09 Oct 2026. Newer data hasn’t arrived yet, so they may be out of date.

Updated once a day after futures settle. How the odds are calculated