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RORateOdds
  • Fed
  • BoC
  • How it works

Market-implied estimates from delayed end-of-day futures data, for education only — not investment advice. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

How it worksData status

Bank of Canada

Policy rate 2.25% · Futures as of 09 Oct 2026

Next decision · Wed 28 Oct 2026

78%

chance of a hold

  • Hold · 2.25%78%
  • Hike 25 bp · 2.50%22%

These odds use futures data from 09 Oct 2026. Newer data hasn’t arrived yet, so they may be out of date.

Upcoming meetings

Odds for where the policy rate will be after each meeting, as a change from today’s 2.25%.

Market-implied outcomes by Bank of Canada meeting
MeetingChange from todayExpected
28 Oct 2026
  • No change78%
  • +25 bp22%
Most likely: 0 bp		2.31%+6 bp
09 Dec 2026
  • No change29%
  • +25 bp57%

The meeting on 08 Dec 2027 isn’t priced: the futures can’t pin the expected rate after 08 Dec 2027 to within half a 25 bp step.

Expected path

Markets expect the policy rate to move from 2.25% today to 3.22% by 27 Oct 2027 (+97 bp).

About these numbers

Odds are implied by the settlement prices of Montréal Exchange CORRA futures (COA and CRA). Each meeting’s expected rate is split between the two nearest 25 bp moves and combined meeting by meeting, so later meetings show the total change from today. They are market-implied estimates, not forecasts or advice. How it works

Futures prices as of
09 Oct 2026
Assumed CORRA minus policy rate
+4.0 bps
Contracts used
COAV26, COAX26, COAZ26, COAF27, CRAU26, CRAZ26, CRAH27, CRAM27, CRAU27
Model
boc-policy-v5

Model notes

  • COA settlement COAV26 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • COAX26: COA volume 56 is below the configured minimum of 100.
  • COA settlement COAX26 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • COAZ26: COA volume 60 is below the configured minimum of 100.
  • COA settlement COAZ26 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • COA settlement COAF27 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • CRA settlement CRAU26 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • CRA settlement CRAZ26 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • CRA settlement CRAH27 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • CRA settlement CRAM27 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • +50 bp14%
    • Most likely: +25 bp
    2.46%+21 bp
    27 Jan 2027
    • No change13%
    • +25 bp41%
    • +50 bp38%
    • +75 bp8%
    Most likely: +25 bp    		2.60%+35 bp
    03 Mar 2027
    • +25 bp24%
    • +50 bp40%
    • +75 bp26%
    Most likely: +50 bp    		2.76%+51 bp
    28 Apr 2027
    • +25 bp14%
    • +50 bp32%
    • +75 bp33%
    • +100 bp16%
    Most likely: +75 bp    		2.88%+63 bp
    02 Jun 2027
    • +25 bp10%
    • +50 bp25%
    • +75 bp33%
    • +100 bp22%
    • +125 bp7%
    Most likely: +75 bp    		2.98%+73 bp
    21 Jul 2027
    • +25 bp7%
    • +50 bp20%
    • +75 bp30%
    • +100 bp26%
    • +125 bp13%
    Most likely: +75 bp    		3.07%+82 bp
    08 Sep 2027
    • +50 bp14%
    • +75 bp26%
    • +100 bp28%
    • +125 bp18%
    • +150 bp7%
    Most likely: +100 bp    		3.17%+92 bp
    27 Oct 2027
    • +50 bp12%
    • +75 bp23%
    • +100 bp27%
    • +125 bp20%
    • +150 bp10%
    Most likely: +100 bp    		3.22%+97 bp
  • CRA settlement CRAU27 is stale for 2026-10-09.
  • The futures pin the expected rate after this meeting only to ±25.2 bp, more than the 12.5 bp limit, so it is not shown.
    • Expected path CSV Next-meeting odds CSV